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Clarksons: Seaborne trade to contract by 1bn tonnes in 2020
Team Sea and Coast | 07/07/2020

Owing to the impact of coronavirus pandemic Seaborne trade is set to drop by 1bn in 2020 and there are indications that the industry is passing “peak” impact, according to Clarksons.

Explaining about the impact of pandemic on the shipping industry Steve Gordon, managing director of Clarksons Research quoted, “The severity of the Covid-19 economic “shock” on the shipping industry is becoming clearer: we estimate seaborne trade fell by 10.6% y-o-y in May and our annual projections suggest trade will contract by 5.6% across 2020, representing 1bn tonnes of “lost” trade and the sharpest decline for over 35 years.”

In an indication that the industry is past the peak impact of pandemic the global port call activity index was down 7.4% in June year-on-year, compared to 9.9% down year-on-year in May. China had normalised its port activity, Steve Gordon noted.

The shipbuilding sector is now seeing increased productivity which previously saw a 20% dip in deliveries year-on-year.

Steve Gordon additionally said, “We have also updated our comparison with the situation during the financial crisis: potentially a deeper initial impact but sharper rebound; a smaller new build order book (10% of fleet not 50%); lower pre-disruption trade growth; better capitalized banks and different megatrends”.

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